News Advisory: Rising Vehicle Ramming Threats Pose Ongoing Continuing Risk, New Report Warns

A new report from the Mineta Transportation Institute (MTI) warns that vehicle ramming attacks are increasing worldwide. Even though the overall trend for fatalities per incident has increased only slightly in recent years, the authors warn that large-scale attacks causing high casualties remain a serious risk.

The MTI report includes ramming attacks on religious institutions. The most recent was on Sunday, September 28, in Grand Blanc, Michigan, USA, when a 40-year-old man drove a pickup truck into a Mormon church before reportedly using firearms and creating a fire to increase the destruction. At least four people are reported killed and eight wounded, though the motive is still under investigation.

The study, Update on Vehicle Rammings: Attackers, Frequency, Lethality, and Mitigation Measures, first looks at a recent surge of global incidents between November 1, 2024, and July 31, 2025. It identified 27 attacks worldwide, claiming 76 lives, in that nine-month period alone. The report also reviews longer-term trends in so-called “Group 1” countries–primarily Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member nations–dating back to 2013, three years before jihadist vehicle attacks began to rise sharply in Europe.

The report authors, Brian Michael Jenkins and Bruce R. Butterworth, say that while the overall number of attacks is increasing, particularly in the United States and other advanced economies, their lethality has increased only slightly, because we have not seen an attack with the devastating levels recorded in the 2016 Bastille Day attack in Nice. That attack killed 86 people in a single night; no comparable mass-casualty event has occurred in recent years.

“Vehicle rammings remain one of the most accessible and brutal forms of attack, and our data shows incidents are rising,” says Jenkins. “Fatalities, however, have not increased at the same pace—likely reflecting stronger protective measures at public events and the absence, so far, of another ultra-high-casualty incident like Nice. But that could change overnight if a well-planned attack used a large rented truck moving at high speeds through an inadequately protected crowd.”

Key findings from the report include:

• United States leads in incidents: Since 2012, the U.S. has recorded the highest number of vehicle rammings (85), followed by Israel/Palestinian Territories (70), China (20), the U.K. (14) and France (12).

• Fatalities concentrated elsewhere: China has suffered the most fatalities (163), followed by France (88), the U.S. (56) and Germany (32).

• Shift in motives: Non-ideological rammings (including those tied to mental health crises or personal grievances) are rising in Group 1 countries (OECD members), while ideologically motivated attacks remain steady overall but are increasing in the U.S.

• Contagion effect: Attacks tend to occur in clusters, often inspiring copycats, though the pattern has not reached the dramatic escalation once seen in airline hijackings of the 1960s and early ’70s.

Figure 1. All Ramming Attacks and Fatalities: Group 1 - 2013-2025

The report also examines recent high-profile cases, including the January 2025 New Orleans attack–the deadliest vehicle ramming in U.S. history which killed 14 people– and the May 2025 Liverpool attack, where more than 50 were injured but none killed.

Butterworth states: “Preventing vehicle access to areas where large numbers of people are gathered, particularly in a well-publicised event such as a protest, march or celebration, is effective. Checks on who rents large vehicles can also contribute to security but can be difficult to do.”

The full report is available now at the Mineta Transportation Institute’s website.

NOTES FOR EDITORS: 

For Editors: Brian Michael Jenkins is available for interviews; please contact him at bmjenk@gmail.com (US Pacific Time, UTC/GMT-8). If you are unable to reach him, contact Bruce Butterworth at +1 (301) 767-6853 (US Eastern Time, UTC/GMT-5).

ABOUT THE MINETA TRANSPORTATION INSTITUTE

At the Mineta Transportation Institute (MTI) at San Jose State University (SJSU) our mission is to increase mobility for all by improving the safety, efficiency, accessibility, and convenience of our nations’ transportation system. Through research, education, workforce development and technology transfer, we help create a connected world. Founded in 1991, MTI is a university transportation center funded by the US Department of Transportation, the California Department of Transportation, and public and private grants, including those made available by the Road Repair and Accountability Act of 2017 (SB1). MTI is affiliated with SJSU’s Lucas College and Graduate School of Business.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Brian Michael Jenkins is the Director of the Mineta Transportation Institute’s Allied Telesis National Transportation Security Center and since 1997 has directed the Institute’s continuing research on protecting surface transportation against terrorism and other serious forms of crime. Bruce R. Butterworth is a Senior analyst at MTI and former Director of Aviation Security Operations at the Federal Aviation Administration. Bruce has taken a leading role in creating MTI’s unique database of attacks on public surface transportation and has also created a database of vehicle ramming attacks. Sachi Yagyu contributed to this report. She is a Transportation Security Specialist at MTI and previously served as a Research Librarian and Library Research Services Team Lead at the RAND Corporation. She holds an MLS Degree from UCLA.

Figure 2. The Truck Used in the December 19, 2016 Berlin Christmas Market Attack

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