Time-To-Failure Prediction of Fine-Grained Soil Slopes Subject to Weather-Driven Deterioration

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Time-To-Failure Prediction of Fine-Grained Soil Slopes Subject to Weather-Driven Deterioration

Abstract: 

Embankments have been widely used in the construction of transportation and flood defense infrastructure. Embankments constructed from clays experience a suite of weather-driven deterioration processes that lead to a progressive loss of hydromechanical performance, causing potentially severe and costly consequences. This study aimed to predict the time to failure of aging, deteriorating clay embankments supporting transportation infrastructure. A multi-phase numerical modeling approach was developed to replicate the long-term, weather-driven, hydromechanical behavior of clay embankments. This model simulated the behavior of a number of well-documented embankment failure case studies that had sufficient data to derive the necessary soil properties and climate records. Numerical models were developed for a total of 34 case studies, and numerical simulations were performed to predict their time to failure. Predictions compared well with the actual times to failure reported for the simulated case studies. Overall, the numerical modeling approach proved efficient in developing deterioration models that could improve infrastructure asset management. Practical recommendations are provided based on the findings of this study.

Authors: 

AMR M MORSY PHD, PE 

Dr. Amr Morsy is a professional civil engineer with experience in both academia and industry with focus on geotechnical engineering, transportation geotechnics, environmental geotechnics, and climate adaptation. He obtained his B.Eng and M.Sc. degrees in civil engineering from Cairo University in 2011 and 2013, respectively, and obtained his PhD degree in civil engineering from The University of Texas at Austin in 2017. He worked as a postdoctoral fellow at The University of Texas at Austin in 2018 and as practicing geotechnical engineer from 2018 to 2020. He later worked as a research associate at Loughborough University on the ACHILLES program grant from 2020 to 2022. He has been working as an assistant professor at California State University Long Beach since 2022. As part of his academic experience, Dr. Morsy conducts research on geotechnical infrastructure deterioration and asset management, climate change impacts on geotechnical infrastructure, and geotechnical solutions for a sustainable built environment. He has excelled in physical and numerical modeling of geotechnical and geoenvironmental engineering systems and in infrastructure instrumentation and laboratory experimentation. He participated in research projects sponsored by the Transportation Research Board of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council of the UK Research and Innovation, the US Federal Highway Administration, the Geosynthetic Institute, Texas and Indiana Departments of Transportation, and geosynthetic manufacturers. As part of his professional consulting experience, Dr. Morsy conducts rigorous analyses, designs, and forensic evaluations for a range of slopes, retaining walls, reinforced soil structures, deep excavations, bridge foundations, waste containment facilities, and tailings and embankment dams. He assisted expert witnesses in cases involving collapse and poor performance of earth retaining structures. He provided solutions to geotechnical problems in a number of environmental remediation projects involving cleanup of superfund sites. He conducted multi-phase flow analyses for several infrastructure features including earthworks, embankment dams, and cover systems. Some of the consulting projects he participated in served the US Environmental Protection Agency, New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, New York State and Indiana Departments of Transportation, Tennessee Valley Authority, New Jersey Transit, and several multinational private and public corporations. 

Published: 
August 2024
Keywords: 
Embankments
Slope failure
Earthwork
Weathering
Deterioration by environmental action

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CSUTC
MCEEST
MCTM
NTFC
NTSC

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