Development of a Statistical Model to Predict Materials' Unit Prices for Future Maintenance and Rehabilitation in Highway Life Cycle Cost Analysis

The cost calculation module of the existing Caltrans’ RealCost LCCA software requires a unit price per material to calculate the agency costs of future M&R projects. Caltrans’ LCCA procedure manual guides users to use the statewide flat unit prices as default or find the relevant unit prices from the Caltrans historical contract cost database.  However, materials’ unit price may vary over time and other factors.  The unit price entered by a user to help calculate the future M&R project cost for a long-term LCCA period, typically 60 years, without considering the variability in unit prices over time may result in inaccurate results.  The objectives of this research are to investigate the sensitivity of materials’ unit prices due to external components (project size, climate region, and other socio-economy variables) in the life cycle cost and develop a statistical model to predict material and construction-related cost inputs for future maintenance and rehabilitation (M&R) projects to support accurate life cycle cost analysis (LCCA) for California highway projects.  The study results will enhance the accuracy and practicality of the highway LCCA results in selecting cost-effective material and construction alternatives.

University: 

Mineta Consortium for Transportation Mobility

Principal Investigator: 

Ghazan Khan, Ph.D. & Changmo Kim, Ph.D.

PI Contact Information: 

Mineta Transportation Institute
San José State University
210 N. 4th St., 4th Floor
San José, CA 95112
khan@csus.edu
chkim@ucdavis.edu

Funding Source(s) and Amounts Provided (by each agency or organization): 

California Department of Transportation - $79,754

Total Project Cost: 

$79,754

Agency ID or Contract Number: 

65A0660

Dates: 

January 2019 to August 2020

Project Number: 

1806