The Effects of COVID-19 on Public Transit Ridership in the Bay Area

The COVID-19 pandemic and its economic impacts have significantly and negatively impacted transit ridership and revenues in the San Francisco Bay Area (and, indeed, across the nation). These impacts have been manageable thanks to timely federal relief that kept transit operators afloat. However, relief funds will be exhausted within the next few years, while transit ridership and farebox revenues show few signs of returning to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon. As federal relief funds dwindle, transit's challenges are only expected to worsen. This project seeks to better understand the core reasons for the reductions in Bay Area transit ridership that are pushing the region’s transit agencies towards a so-called “fiscal cliff”. The research is focused primarily on identifying the core reasons for the decline in ridership (problem diagnosis). It will also identify and evaluate operational, financial, and policy options for addressing the ridership challenge in the short- and long term (solution strategies). The research will analyze quantitative data on transit ridership and related economic activity.  This quantitative analysis will be supplemented with qualitative research, including key informant interviews with transit experts and a review of trends affecting work and travel in the post-pandemic world.