Climate Change Impacts on Long-Term Performance and Service Life of California Transportation Earthworks Prone to Weather-Driven Deterioration

Earthworks play a vital role in the transportation network, providing essential support for long linear stretches of highways and railways not only in California but also globally. However, these earthworks are susceptible to weather-driven deterioration processes that can gradually compromise their stability and, in some cases, lead to unexpected failures, particularly in aging infrastructure. Slope failures in California during rainy years are common and costly. For instance, California's recent rainy seasons of 2017, following a prolonged drought, has caused severe flooding, landslides, and coastal erosion, resulting in significantly costly damages. Given that California plays a pivotal role as a major provider of goods and services to the broader United States, any disruption in its transportation system can have dire repercussions for the entire nation. This project aims to assess the impact of climate change on the deterioration of earthworks in California. 

This study will use a rigorous computational modeling approach capable of simulating the long-term performance of earthwork subject to weather-driven deterioration. The specific objectives of the project include (1) development of ranges of construction material properties representative to materials used in California earthworks; (2) generation of future climate scenarios representative to California; (3) development of computer models to simulate the long-term performance of a range of representative California earthworks under future climate scenarios; and (4) establishing early-warning performance metrics that can be practically used by infrastructure stakeholders.