Latent Active Transportation Methodology

The purpose of this research is to create an actionable plan based on Latent Demand Methodology for Caltrans to successfully evaluate opportunities and locations for building active transportation facilities near the state highway system in California. Location identification of potential active transportation facilities is a challenging task due to the scarcity of existing data on pedestrian travel and bicyclist trips in the USA. Considering the pedestrian travel patterns, the lack of relevant literature aggravates the challenge as limited current research suggests that walking is limited to the poor, young, and the old in places other than the densest urban centers. Research suggests that several factors affect the choice of active transportation including personal factors, environmental factors and trip characteristics, plus a combination of unknown factors that need to be identified through more research. In order to identify optimum transportation facility locations, various datasets will be used, such as census data, aerial photographs data, data from urban planning organizations with population density and projected growth in different zones/zip codes, and geographical information system.

Upon collecting/accessibility of those data, and based on the scatterings of population and land use, a specific formula (different for pedestrians versus bicyclists) will be defined using an LDM approach.  LDM can in fact be used to determine the potential of roadway corridors to serve bicycles and/or pedestrian trip activities.

We will create a comprehensive formula-based latent demand model which:
•    Considers the majority (or all) key trip generators/attractors
•    Includes the majority (or all) determining factors on choice of active transportation (either walk or bike);
•    Calculates the probability of the choice of trip based on determining factors;
•    Identifies potential desirable location for transportation facility building based on previous steps. These facilities could be planned/potential locations for both bicycle or pedestrian facilities. 

Furthermore, we will consider the role of the type of regions (urban, suburban, rural) in developing the overall LDM methodology.