MTI Report 06-03
 
 
 

HIGH-SPEED RAIL PROJECTS
IN THE UNITED STATES:
IDENTIFYING THE ELEMENTS OF SUCCESS
PART 2

 

 

 

November 2006
 
 

Allison L. C. de Cerreño, Ph.D.

Shishir Mathur, Ph.D.


a report cosponsored by the

NYU Wagner Rudin Center for Transportation Policy & Management

 

a publication of the

Mineta Transportation Institute

College of Business

San José State University

San José, CA 95192-0219

Created by Congress in 1991

 
 
 
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Many individuals from around the country aided the authors in the creation of this report. Some provided their time for interviews and reviews of the different drafts, while others helped to find written documentation of historical and current facts. In particular, Allison C. de Cerreño would like to thank the following individuals for their contributions to the Northeast Corridor and Keystone Corridor cases: Charlie Banks, R.L. Banks & Associates; John Bennett, Amtrak; James Boice, Connecticut Department of Transportation; Eric Bugaile; Peter Cannito, MTA Metro-North; David Carol, Charlotte Area Transit System; Calvin Cassidy, Pennsylvania Department of Transportation; Mortimer Downey, PB Consult, Inc.; Toby Fauver, Pennsylvania Department of Transportation; David Gunn; Emmanuel "Bruce" Horowitz, ESH Consult; David Matsuda, Office of Senator Lautenberg; Richard Peltz, Appalachian Regional Commission; Catherine Popp-McDonough, SEPTA; Michael Saunders, Federal Highway Administration; Bill Schafer, Norfolk Southern Corporation; Peter Stangl; Brian Sterman, FTA; Louis Thompson, Thompson, Galenson and Associates, LLC; and Thomas Till, Discovery Institute. She also thanks Dan Leavitt, California High-Speed Rail Authority for his time in updating her on the current status of high-speed rail efforts in California.

Special thanks are extended to George Haikalis, who provided a number of historical documents no longer easily found, including the summary report that Dr. de Cerreño in search of the Keystone Corridor's earlier attempts at high-speed rail which were all but forgotten, and Steven Greenfield of Parsons Brinckerhoff, who managed to track down the full preliminary report on the feasibility of high-speed rail in the Keystone Corridor. And, finally to members of Amtrak's Planning and Analysis and Government Affairs Departments who provided several documents and the speed restriction tables for the NEC, spent time with the author showing her how to interpret them, and arranged for additional discussions on numerous technical questions.

Shishir Mathur would like to thank the following individuals for their contributions to the Chicago Hub case: John Bennett, Amtrak; David Carol, Charlotte Area Transit System; Emmanuel "Bruce" Horowitz, ESH Consult; Merrill Travis, Lower Cost Solutions, Inc,; John Schwalbauch, Illinois Department of Transportation; Ethan Johnson, Wisconsin Department of Transportation; Stuart Nicholson, the Ohio Rail Development Commission; John Hey, Iowa Department of Transportation; Ellis Tompkins, Nebraska Department of Roads; Rodney Massman, Missouri Department of Transportation; Mike Bedore, Michigan Department of Transportation; Drew Galloway, Amtrak; Joby Berman, Illinois State Toll Highway Authority; Emil Frankel, Parsons Brinckerhoff; Rick Harnish, Midwest High Speed Rail Coalition; and Rick Tidwell, Metra.

Finally, both authors extend their thanks to Howard Permut, MTA Metro-North, for his thoughtful comments and suggestions during numerous rounds of the report. Thanks are offered also to MTI staff, including Research Director Trixie Johnson, Research and Publications Assistant Sonya Cardenas, Webmaster Barney Murray, and Graphic Artist Shun Nelson. Editing and publication services were provided by Catherine Frazier and Project Solutions Network, Inc.

 

Table of Contents

Executive Summary 1

Key Findings and Lessons Learned 2

Themes for Consideration 6

Introduction 9

Goals, Definitions, and Methodology 9

Update on Earlier Cases and HSR Initiatives 10

The Current Cases 12

Challenges in Implementing HSR in the States 14

Outline of the Report 15

The Chicago Hub and Midwest Regional Rail Initiative 17

History of HSR in the Midwest 17

HSR Efforts within the States 28

Assessment of the Case 39

Possible Issues and Next Steps 50

The Keystone Corridor 53

The Context 54

History and Development of the Corridor 56

Current Status of the KCIP 78

Assessment of the Case 82

The Northeast Corridor 87

Definitions and Context 87

History and Development of the Corridor 92

Assessment of the Case 130

Findings, Lessons, and Themes 139

Key Findings and Lessons Learned 139

Themes for Consideration 143

Endnotes 147

Abbreviations and Acronyms 169

Bibliography 173

About the Authors 191

Peer Review 193

List of Tables

Lines Comprising the Chicago Hub 21

MWRRS Plan: Train Travel Times 25

MWRRS Plan: Operating Revenues, Costs, and Operating Ratio 26

MWRRS Plan: Capital Investment by Corridor 27

Attributes Related to HSR Alternatives C, D, and E 60

Costs of SOGR and High-Speed Service (millions of 1996 $) 65

Service Alternatives under SOGR 65

Funding Share of KCIP Program Elements ($ millions) 69

Funding Schedule ($ millions) 70

KCIP Program Element Costs, 2002 vs. 2004 ($ millions) 73

Revised Funding Schedule ($ millions) 74

Program Elements: Total Expenditures per Time Period ($ millions) 74

December 2004 Revised Funding Schedule ($ millions) 75

Planned Work on the Keystone Corridor in FY 2005 75

NEC Ridership: DC-NYC, 1968-1976 (thousands) 94

Cost of Program Elements by State ($ millions) 100

PEIS and Redirection Study Program Elements and Costs ($ millions) 104

NECIP Budget Revisions, 04/79-01/82 ($ millions) 108

Redirection Study/FPEIS Recommendations vs. Actual Improvements 110

Estimated Cost of Trip-Time-Related Improvements ($ millions) 117

Capacity Improvements 118

Recapitalization 119

Funds Obligated under NECIP, FY 1976-1995 ($ thousands) 120

NEC Goals for and Current Status of Trip Times and Frequencies 133

Executive Summary

In August 2005, the Mineta Transportation Institute issued the report, High-Speed Rail Projects in the United States: Identifying the Elements for Success. The report noted that since the 1960s, high-speed ground transportation (HSGT) has "held the promise of fast, convenient, and environmentally sound travel for distances between 40 and 600 miles."See Allison L. C. de Cerreño, Daniel M. Evans, and Howard Permut, High-Speed Rail Projects in the United States: Identifying the Elements for Success, MTI Report 05-01 (San José, CA: Mineta Transportation Institute, October 2005), p. 1. After briefly discussing the different experiences with HSGT between the United States and its Asian and European counterparts, the report proceeded to review three U.S. cases--Florida, California, and the Pacific Northwest--as a means for identifying lessons learned for successfully implementing high-speed rail (HSR) in the United States.

This report is, in essence, volume 2 of the previous study. Like the first study, this report also used a comparative case study approach based on an extensive literature review as well as interviews with primary and secondary sources. Sources in the literature review were drawn from historical, governmental, and legal documents, as well as business plans, feasibility studies, and related media articles.

This effort adds to the earlier work with three additional cases--the Chicago Hub consisting of eight lines in eight states; the Keystone Corridor between Philadelphia and Harrisburg, Pennsylvania; and the Northeast Corridor (NEC) mainline between Washington DC and Boston. As with the earlier report, the goal of this study is to identify lessons learned for successfully implementing HSR in the United States. Given the early stages of most of these projects, "success" is defined by whether a given HSR project is still actively pursuing development or funding. However, in the case of the Northeast Corridor, a fuller discussion of success is provided since HSR has been implemented on that corridor for some time now.

Some of the key findings and lessons learned from the previous study are bolstered by these three cases. Furthermore, this study provides several additional themes for consideration, the following in particular:

The Keystone Corridor and Northeast Corridor experiences call into question whether they can be replicated in areas where Amtrak (National Railroad Passenger Corporation) does not own the line.

The cases in the report help highlight the tension between needing to keep costs low and finding the needed funds so that goals can be met.

Finally, together with the examples from the first study, the cases in this study suggest that an important discussion needs to occur about whether efforts aimed at incremental HSR (that is, rail that uses existing technologies and rights-of-way [ROW], but undergoes improvements to allow for speeds up to 150 mph) are more likely to meet with success in the current political climate than are those aimed at new HSR (rail requiring new ROW and technologies imported from Europe or Asia that typically allow for speeds in excess of 200 mph). The answer to this question could change the course of both policies and funding aimed at instituting HSR in the United States.

Key Findings and Lessons Learned

While each case summary provides a discussion of key findings and lessons specific to that corridor, the cases presented in this report, along with those of the first report, provide several broader findings and lessons. This section highlights these findings, along with lessons that will prove important for HSR initiatives around the country.

Leadership, Means, and Authority

Leadership coupled with means and authority are required to implement change. HSR projects are expensive, take many years to complete, and require coordination among and between a number of key actors and stakeholders. The case studies of this report and its predecessor, which included California, Florida, and the Pacific Northwest, suggest that a key criterion for successful implementation of HSR is the combined presence of leadership and the means and authority to implement change.

In the Keystone Corridor, this set of factors has been the most important in contributing to its current success. In earlier attempts at HSR in Pennsylvania, leadership was in place, but authority was clearly lacking; in the most recent attempt, the leadership, the means, and the authority to implement change were all present. Looking to Florida, again, leadership has been present, but the means and authority to implement change have been lacking. Interestingly, in the case of the Pacific Northwest, the means and authority appear to be present, but leadership is lacking. Finally, the NEC has demonstrated both situations, with leadership, means, and authority all present in its earliest years (though as will be seen, there were still some serious challenges), but a lack of leadership in more recent years.

Given the need for the combination of these three factors to be present for successful HSR outcomes, the Chicago Hub faces several obstacles. First, despite the support of several state legislators and state department of transportation (DOT) officials, as a whole, the Hub has lacked strong and consistent leadership. Second, funding for the Hub has not been secured (though two small segments have funding for certain improvements). Third, no formal authority or structural process that would make HSR-specific improvements has been identified. The end result is that while some coordination exists, specific roles and responsibilities are unclear, and overall, the states and other stakeholders are not moving in concert with each other to implement HSR.

Who Should Play These Roles?

The actors providing the leadership, the means, and the authority to implement change may vary according to specific circumstances and factors. On the NEC, the federal government and Amtrak played the central roles, while on the Keystone Corridor, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania; the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation (PennDOT); and Amtrak, under the leadership of David Gunn, played these critical roles. In both cases, Amtrak could provide authority since it owned the lines, or in the case of the NEC, most of the line. On the Keystone Corridor, because the costs associated with the modifications were not extensive, the state government and Amtrak could include them in their annual budgets, thus providing the means and avoiding the need for political campaigns to build support.

On the NEC, the costs were more significant as were the challenges faced by multiple owners, multiple states, and many more operators. Thus, the involvement of the federal government was more important. On the Chicago Hub, progress has been piecemeal, with only two relatively small segments progressing forward at this point--one between Dwight, Illinois, and Springfield, Illinois, and the other between Kalamazoo, Michigan, and the Indiana State Line--for a combined 198 miles of the total 2,313 miles. In the former case, Illinois has provided the leadership, while the authority and the means have been derived not only from the state but also from Union Pacific, which owned the segment, and the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA). In the latter case, Michigan and Amtrak (who owns the segment in this case) provided the leadership and the authority, with the means provided by these entities as well as by the FRA and private industry. However, in the absence of either a serious regional authority or equal commitment by each of the states involved, successful implementation of HSR across the full Chicago Hub will likely necessitate a strong federal role akin to what was seen on the NEC.

Need for a Federal Vision

The Keystone Corridor demonstrates the potential for HSR improvements without major federal support. Nevertheless, given the experience on the Northeast Corridor and the overall lack of progress on HSR in the United States over the past four decades, there is good reason to believe that a federal vision for HSR is needed along with a national network strategy for rail that combines passenger, freight, non-HSR intercity, and HSR rail, and addresses how each also links to nonrail modes of transportation. Along with this, federal funding is also important, especially for the larger and multistate projects. Indeed, as the experience of the NEC demonstrates, without the public funding provided by the federal government, even the successes that have been realized would not have occurred.

Reiterating the findings in the first study, without a broad vision, or at least guidance and standards, states will continue to fill the void with multiple types of models--constitutional amendments and legislation (like Florida and California), multistate compacts (like the Chicago Hub), public-private partnerships (like what was envisioned during the 1980s in Pennsylvania)--without a sense of what is most likely to succeed. Worse, without a national network strategy for rail, the United States will continue to miss opportunities to improve its overall transportation system for passengers and freight.

Clear Identification of Goals and Benefits

The goals for any major capital investment project are rarely unidimensional. However, in the case of HSR, the goals are not only multidimensional but also sometimes conflicting. While some focus on the need for the highest speeds, others argue that accessibility, frequency, and on-time performance are more important (basically, more efficient and reliable intercity rail). These different goals lead to very different markets, technologies, funding sources, and overall outcomes, with those focusing on speeds proposing new HSR and those focusing on other attributes looking toward incremental HSR.

Developing clear and consistent goals around which to build a consensus is important for successful outcomes in HSR. On the Keystone Corridor, the unsuccessful effort in the 1980s that resulted in a recommendation for magnetic levitation (Maglev) had multiple goals--economic development, higher rail share of travel, travel-time savings--with no clear prioritization among them. Indeed, a substantial minority of those involved in the effort did not fully support the final recommendation, believing that lower cost alternatives should be considered. In contrast, the most recent effort on the Keystone Corridor stressed two much more straightforward goals--bringing the line up to a state of good repair and improving trip times.

Equally important, all the key stakeholders (in this case, operators) along the Keystone Corridor see some benefit accruing from the goals and related projects entailed in the current effort. Amtrak will increase and enhance its service, with corresponding ridership and revenue increases. PennDOT will be able to fulfill several objectives related to its broader transportation goals for the corridor. Southeastern Pennsylvania Transportation Authority (SEPTA) will benefit from increased capacity and infrastructure improvements. Finally, Norfolk Southern Corporation will benefit from being able to use heavier cars over the bridges, and from increased efficiency in operations resulting from the track, communications, and signal improvements.

The NEC's experience has been somewhat mixed in terms of goals and benefits. The earliest goals were identified in terms of reducing trip times, but they were negotiated based on political need rather than objective criteria or analysis, and whether they were fully agreed upon by all the stakeholders involved is not clear. In terms of benefits, as early as 1978, the Federal Railroad Administration and Amtrak came under criticism for not addressing the concerns and needs of the various stakeholders along the corridor, notably the commuter and freight railroad operators. Under the later electrification project on the north-end of the corridor, similar concerns were raised as well as additional concerns by other nonoperating stakeholders along the NEC, and as was seen, finding operational support and funding for those improvements that do not clearly benefit certain stakeholders has proven difficult.

To date, the overarching goals of the Midwestern states are to increase connectivity, reduce trip times between major Midwestern cities, and provide multimodal connections to improve system access. These goals have meant that the Midwestern states have moved toward a more regional framework to plan for HSR, which, critics point out, has meant inclusion of corridors that have little potential to attract ridership, and an estimated project cost that, in light of limited funding, is almost impossible to finance. Further, the matrix of benefits in the Chicago Hub remains very much unclear. For the Chicago Hub to have any opportunity for success, it is critical that the private railroad companies that own the majority of the ROW, Metra (the commuter rail), and the environmental groups be included in the planning process so they can work together to develop and prioritize goals and identify benefits.

Themes for Consideration

In addition to the findings and lessons learned, some important themes for consideration bear mentioning.

Private ROW Ownership and Success
Can the NEC and the Keystone Corridor be replicated without ownership of the ROW by a single passenger rail entity?

On both the NEC and the Keystone Corridor, ownership of the ROW by Amtrak proved critical. Ownership of the ROW allowed Amtrak the authority to more easily deal with capital investment decisions, signaling, dispatching, power distribution, and maintenance decisions to implement HSR. It also reduced costs since there was no need to purchase new ROW and, in the case of the Keystone Corridor Improvement Program (KCIP), allowed the avoidance of certain environmental requirements because most of the improvements occurred in the current ROW and did not reflect a new service in themselves.

In contrast, except for one relatively small segment, the Chicago Hub is not owned by Amtrak, and unlike the NEC on which the other owners were public entities, the Chicago Hub's spokes are primarily owned by various private railroad companies. The result is similar to what is seen on the western portion of the Keystone Corridor, between Harrisburg and Pittsburgh--there is no clear authority for implementing HSR, and the costs to do so will be much more significant since in many cases separate tracks will be required for passenger trains operating at higher speeds. In fact, the only section of the Chicago Hub that has been upgraded in speed in recent years (95 mph) is the Amtrak-owned segment from just outside of Chicago to Kalamazoo.

The Cost of Keeping Costs Lower
Keeping costs lower helps, but there are costs to "doing it on the cheap."

Among the key findings on the Keystone Corridor was that because the costs to implement change in the most recent effort were reasonable, they were more easily accepted and achieved. This was also seen on the two segments of the Chicago Hub where track improvements have been made to eventually allow for 110 mph service; associated costs were relatively low and could be budgeted within an already existing program. However, as the experience on the NEC demonstrates, trying to reduce costs too much can lead to the situation where the goals are left unmet. From the earliest years of the Northeast Corridor Improvement Project (NECIP) through the later electrification project on the north-end, there was a reluctance to commit the necessary funding to fully complete the project. The end result of this lack of commitment was difficulty in meeting many of the goals that were set. Worse, without the necessary funding, the plans had to be redrawn and revised numerous times, leading to delayed implementation and higher costs in the long term. Finally, making decisions based on the trip-time savings and costs of each project individually ignored the possibility of reaping greater savings by combining the projects.

Moving Beyond U.S. Reluctance
Is the United States ready for new HSR?

The first study suggested that there were opportunities for both incremental and new HSR in the United States, noting a 1997 Federal Railroad Administration study that concluded that high-speed ground transportation (including HSR and Maglev) could develop appreciable ridership.See Ibid., 5 and 75. For the report, see U.S. Department of Transportation (U.S. DOT), Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), High-Speed Ground Transportation for America (Washington DC: FRA, 1997), p. 9-1. A number of experts have suggested in recent months that with concerns rising over fuel prices and the damage cause by greenhouse gases, people may be more willing and likely to turn to rail for travel. However, in the United States to date, the only two cases that even come close to having HSR implemented are the NEC and the Keystone Corridor. Many other efforts around the country--notably Florida and Texas, which were pursued for decades--have failed to move past the planning and initial engineering phases.

Should the focus be on incremental HSR?

Perhaps the most resounding theme for consideration is that in the United States, incremental HSR may have the best chance for success. This is not to say that all incremental HSR solutions will be successful. The Ohio and Chicago Hubs have been pursued for many years without approaching implementation beyond the upgrades to the tracks on the two small segments noted earlier. Nor is this to say that incremental HSR is the preferred approach. Indeed, while the NEC is successful in some ways, it also clearly demonstrates the difficulties in attempting true HSR operations on a ROW, that is also heavily used by commuter and freight rail.

Nevertheless, this is a point worth serious consideration, given the costs of new HSR; current political apathy (and in some cases outright antipathy) surrounding rail more broadly and new HSR more specifically; the perceived risks associated with "unproven" HSR technologies in the United States; and the fact that the few places where success has occurred (even if modest in many respects) have implemented incremental HSR. While incremental rail may be viewed by some as "settling" for the second-best choice, without stronger and consistent financial and political commitment on both the part of the federal government and the states, it may be the only means for having any HSR in the United States for some time.

Introduction

In August 2005, the Mineta Transportation Institute issued the report, High-Speed Rail Projects in the United States: Identifying the Elements for Success . The report noted that since the 1960s, high-speed ground transportation (HSGT) has "held the promise of fast, convenient, and environmentally sound travel for distances between 40 and 600 miles."See C. de Cerreño, et. al., High-Speed Rail Projects in the United States., p. 1. After briefly discussing the difference in experiences with HSGT between the United States and its Asian and European counterparts, the report proceeded to review three U.S. cases--Florida, California, and the Pacific Northwest--as a means for identifying lessons learned for successfully implementing high-speed rail (HSR) in the United States.

This report follows and adds to the earlier study, also using a comparative case study approach, with three additional cases--the Chicago Hub, the Keystone Corridor, and the Northeast Corridor. While some of the lessons learned and themes for consideration from the previous study are bolstered by these three cases, additional lessons are more apparent, particularly as one looks to the two cases--the Keystone Corridor and Northeast Corridor--in which higher speeds have been achieved.

Goals, Definitions, and Methodology

As with the earlier report, the goal of this study is to identify lessons learned for successfully implementing HSR in the United States. With respect to methodology, the study used a comparative case study approach based on an extensive literature review as well as interviews with primary and secondary sources. Sources in the literature review were drawn from historical, governmental, and legal documents, as well as business plans, feasibility studies, and related media articles.

Given the early stages of most of these projects, "success" is defined by whether a given HSR project is still actively pursuing development or funding. However, in the case of the Northeast Corridor, a fuller discussion of success is provided, since HSR has been implemented on that corridor for some time now.

With respect to other definitions, HSR in the United States has multiple definitions. HSR has been defined in terms of faster speeds (110 miles per hour [mph] and above) and in terms of market penetration (competing with aviation and highway modes).See Ibid., p. 8. Because of these different definitions, different types of HSR have been sought over the years:

Incremental HSR--uses existing technologies and rights-of-way (ROW) but makes improvements to allow for speeds up to 150 mph (though most projects in the United States aim for 110 mph) and uses either electrified or nonelectrified systems

New HSR--requires new ROW and technologies imported from Europe or Asia that typically allow for speeds in excess of 200 mph (though in practice they tend to have maximum speeds around 185 mph).See Ibid.

Additionally, some efforts have been aimed at implementing an entirely new type of technology--magnetic levitation (Maglev)--now in revenue service in Shanghai, China, with several other Asian countries exploring this option. As the name suggests, Maglev does away with steel-wheel-on-steel-rail, using magnetic fields for movement and allowing for speeds in excess of 300 mph. While incremental and new HSR generally compete with airplanes and automobiles between distances of 100 to 500 miles, Maglev can compete between 40 and 600 miles.

Update on Earlier Cases and HSR Initiatives

Since the publication of the first report, there has been little movement on HSR in the Pacific Northwest. According to the Washington Department of Transportation (WSDOT), while completed track, signal, and rolling-stock improvements allow for higher speeds and frequencies, "the lack of a stable source of state multimodal funding, and to date little federal support, has slowed the implementation of this vision and is leading WSDOT to reassess its high-speed intercity passenger rail plan."See Washington State Department of Transportation, "Transportation Plan Update," http://www.wsdot.wa.gov/planning/wtp/documents/FutureVision.htm (accessed 6/27/06). Florida's attempts at implementing HSR also appear to have ended for the time being, and California's plans remain in doubt. In the meantime, planning for the Southeast Corridor has moved ahead and the Ohio Regional Rail Network has experienced some new interest. Nevertheless, none have moved to the implementation phase.

At the time the work was being conducted on the first report, the situations in Florida and California looked promising, even if HSR in the Pacific Northwest seemed to lag. Indeed, Florida appeared closer than it had been in over thirty years to implementing a new HSR system (i.e., new right-of-way and dedicated tracks as opposed to incremental HSR, which utilizes current right-of-way and tracks). However, in the November 2004 general elections, two-thirds of Florida's citizens voted to repeal a constitutional amendment requiring implementation of new HSR in Florida.

Florida

In 2006 the Florida High Speed Rail Authority (FHSRA) issued its report to the governor and legislature. The report noted that although the amendment had been repealed, the FHSRA continued negotiations with Fluor-Bombardier, which had provided the first-ranked proposal responding to FHSRA's 2002 Request for Proposals. The negotiations have centered on certain potential changes to the proposal that would incorporate several attributes of the second-ranked proposal, including the addition of a second track in certain locations. At the same time, FHSRA has remained in discussions with Global Rail Consortium, which submitted the second-ranked proposal and has solicited additional information from them, specifically related to the levels of private participation in the project.See Florida High Speed Rail Authority (FHSRA), 2006 Report to the Governor and the Legislature, http://www.floridahighspeedrail.org/uploaddocuments/p25 2006_Report_to_the_Governor_and_the_Legislature.pdf (accessed 6/9/06), 2; also see C. de Cerreño, et.al., High-Speed Rail Projects in the United States, pp. 27-43.

In addition to continuing negotiations and discussions with Fluor-Bombardier and Global Rail Consortium, the FHSRA also changed its preferred route option for the new HSR, which would connect Tampa and Orlando, to facilitate and expedite the formal Record of Decision on the Final Environmental Impact Statement (FEIS) by the Federal Railroad Administration. The FEIS was signed in July 2005 and formally released in August 2005, but the Record of Decision is still pending.

No new recommendations were offered by the FHSRA to the governor and legislature, though the Authority reiterated the 2005 recommendation to complete the two key memoranda of agreement--one with Florida Department of Transportation and one with the Greater Orlando Aviation Authority--which are needed before the Record of Decision can be finalized. FHSRA believes that these steps need to be taken to preserve the ability to locate a new HSR system in the existing public right-of-way along a key section of the corridor, even if HSR is not pursued at this time.See FHSRA, 2006 Report to the Governor and the Legislature, pp. 3-4.

Nevertheless, given that funding for HSR was cut by Governor Jeb Bush in fiscal year (FY) 2004 and has not been reintroduced, and that the Governor's office remains not only unsupportive but also actively opposed to HSR, at the moment the situation appears rather bleak, at least for new HSR in Florida.

California

In some ways California is now at a crossroad similar that of Florida in November 2004. Unlike Florida, where the state administration is openly antagonistic to HSR, California, appears to have support in both the administration and legislature. Indeed, several legislators, particularly Senator Dean Florez (D-Shafter), are championing HSR in the state. There is also support among key stakeholders such as the airlines, which are being looked to as members of the consortium that will operate service in many locations not currently served well by the aviation industry.

In November 2005, the California High Speed Rail Authority (CHSRA) unanimously approved the certification of the final Environmental Impact Statement. This was followed by the Federal Railroad Administration's issuance of a Record of Decision. Yet, after more than a decade of working toward the implementation of a 700-mile, new HSR system in California, the first section of which will connect San Francisco and Los Angeles, HSR's future in the state is still in doubt.

In January 2006, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger announced a $222 billion, 10-year public works bond, which while mentioning HSR, did not include any funding for it. As a result, members of the Legislature began discussing postponing a $9.95 billion HSR bond measure from November 2006 to November 2008 (it had already been postponed from the November 2004 ballot).See California High-Speed Rail Authority (CHSRA), "What's New," http://www.cahighspeedrail.ca.gov/wahts_new/default.asp (accessed 6/1/06). On June 29, 2006, the legislature voted unanimously to postpone the vote again.See "Lawmakers Vote to Axe High-Speed Rail Bond From November Ballot," Associated Press, http://www.sacbee.com/state_wire/story/14271924p-15082433c.html (accessed 6/29/06).

According to Dan Leavitt, Deputy Director of the CHSRA, postponing the ballot has serious consequences for HSR in California. A two-year delay will likely raise costs for an already expensive project and could result in a missed opportunity for preserving the ROWs needed for new HSR.See Dan Leavitt, Deputy Director, California High Speed Rail Authority, personal communication, 6/5/06. Leavitt suggested that the effects of a postponement of the bond measure could be mitigated if the state were to provide funding for the CHSRA's work over the next two years (estimated at $116 million), so it could move ahead on preliminary engineering for the project and acquire and preserve the needed ROW. However, the 2006-2007 enacted budget only provided $14.3 million "to begin project implementation." While the funding will allow the CHSRA to move ahead with "completion of a financial plan, project management, identification of critical right-of-way acquisitions, development of a simulator for planning system operation and public information, and the beginning of detailed project design and related environmental studies," bond funding must still be authorized in 2008.See State of California, California State Budget, 2006-2007 (June 30, 2006), 30, http://www.ebudget.ca.gov/pdf/Enacted/BudgetSummary/FullBudgetSummary.pdf (accessed 9/27/06).

The Current Cases

The three cases together in this report provide some interesting comparisons to each other and to the earlier cases as well. While the Chicago Hub remains in the planning stages (and significantly behind California and Florida), the Keystone Corridor is in the midst of incremental improvements to increase speeds up to 110 mph (with potential additional increases over time), and the Northeast Corridor (NEC) is the closest the United States comes to true HSR, with speeds of up to 150 mph in certain locations.

Like Florida and California, the Keystone Corridor is situated fully within a single state; the Chicago Hub is more like the Northeast Corridor and to some degree the Pacific Northwest, though the latter links only three states, while the former two include many more. Similar to the Northeast Corridor, HSR on the Chicago Hub is more important to some states and less important to others, making it difficult to find consensus at times.

Unlike California and Florida's most recent attempt at HSR, all three of the current cases are pursuing or have implemented incremental HSR (Florida has also pursued incremental rail at different times). However, the Chicago Hub differs from the Keystone Corridor and NEC in several critical respects:

The Chicago Hub (2,313 miles) is significantly larger than either the NEC (456 miles) or the Keystone Corridor (104 miles). There are two segments of the Chicago Hub that are roughly the same length as the Keystone Corridor (118 miles and 80 miles) and on which some improvements are being made. However, each of these segments is significantly smaller than the full Hub, each represents only a portion of two different spokes of the Hub, and unlike the Keystone Corridor, they do not connect the end-point cities.

The costs associated with change on the full extent of the Chicago Hub are significantly higher than with the most recent efforts on the Keystone Corridor (though on the segments mentioned above, the costs are comparable).

The ROW is largely owned by private freight operators on the Chicago Hub; on the Keystone Corridor, Amtrak (National Railroad Passenger Corporation) owns the portion of the corridor on which incremental improvements are being made; and on the NEC, Amtrak owns the majority of the line, with public agencies owning the remainder.

There is no clear overall authority or dominant player on the Chicago Hub, while on the Keystone Corridor, Amtrak and the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation clearly played the lead role.

Owing in part to its multistate nature, there is no formal institutional framework on the Chicago Hub as one sees on the Keystone Corridor or even on the NEC.

Who benefits and by how much is less clear with the Chicago Hub than with the Keystone Corridor or the NEC. Worse, while on the Keystone Corridor all the stakeholders see some benefit, on the Chicago Hub some stakeholders may see a negative impact if HSR is implemented.

As will be seen after reviewing the experiences on the Keystone Corridor and Northeast Corridors, all of these points call into question the ability of the Chicago Hub to move from early planning to full implementation of HSR.

Challenges in Implementing HSR in the States

In an October 1994 article by Louis Thompson, "High-Speed Rail (HSR) in the United States--Why Isn't There More?," he notes that there are several important advantages over air and automobile travel that are brought by HSR. Among them are the following:

HSR carries large volumes of people using limited space.

HSR consumes less energy and emits less pollution than automobiles and airplanes under certain conditions.

HSR can operate directly in and out of city centers, unlike airplanes.

HSR's marginal operating cost per person is small once the infrastructure is built, so that if volumes are high enough, this mode can provide the lowest-cost travel.See Louis S. Thompson, "High-Speed Rail (HSR) in the United States--Why Isn't There More?" Japan Railway & Transport Review (October 1994): pp. 34-35.

On the other hand, Thompson also notes several disadvantages:

HSR can be extremely expensive to build (particularly for new HSR).

HSR is limited in coverage, since it can only go where there are tracks (and finding those tracks and ROW today is increasingly difficult).

HSR is not a proven mode in the United States (which increases risk for investors).See Ibid., p. 35.

Additional challenges for HSR in the United States revolve around institutional arrangements. Thompson notes that current institutional arrangements are not "well-suited" for the type of centralized action that is needed to implement HSR. With many HSR markets and, therefore, initiatives located within a single state (California, Florida, Texas in earlier years), it is difficult to find national support and corresponding funding. However, for those that represent multistate efforts (Chicago Hub, Pacific Northwest, Southeast Corridor), there is no well-established system of regional governance and authority.See Ibid., pp. 36-37.

To date, in most attempts to implement HSR in the United States, the disadvantages have far outweighed the advantages and have led to multiple failures to progress. The three cases in this report provide insights on why this has occurred and how, despite this, some progress has been made on at least the NEC and Keystone Corridors.

Outline of the Report

The subsequent pages of this report explore the cases in depth, tracing historical efforts aimed at implementing high-speed rail as well as the most recent challenges and status of each of the corridors. The next section of this report covers the Chicago Hub and Midwest Regional Rail Initiative, describing the initiatives being taken by each state to move HSR forward in the region and providing an assessment of the various stakeholder interests that will need to be taken into account as the effort progresses. The fourth section explores the Keystone Corridor, tracing several unsuccessful attempts aimed at implementing HSR in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania as well as assessing the most recent effort led jointly by Amtrak and the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation. The fifth section investigates the experience on the Northeast Corridor, juxtaposing the experiences on the north-end and south-end to discern additional findings and lessons. Finally, the report concludes by describing the findings, lessons learned, and themes for future consideration that are derived from the study results.

 

The Chicago Hub and Midwest Regional Rail Initiative

The Midwest, with Chicago as a hub and several major cities within a 600-miles radius, presents an opportunity for the development of a regionwide high-speed rail (HSR) system in a hub-and-spoke fashion. The lines connecting Chicago to the other major Midwestern cities form the spokes. These major cities, spread over more than half a dozen states, include Milwaukee, Madison, Kansas City, Detroit, Omaha, Cincinnati, St. Louis, and Minneapolis/St. Paul. Most of the right-of-way (ROW) and the tracks in the Midwest are owned by the private railroad companies. A large proportion of these tracks are used both for freight and passenger rail.

The Midwest's efforts at providing HSR are multilayered; concurrent with the regional-level involvement in planning and advocating for HSR are state-specific attempts at planning and implementing HSR-related projects. Thus, using the definition utilized in this report, the HSR efforts of the Midwest can be considered successful because the Midwestern states are actively planning for incremental HSR.

Nevertheless, the Chicago Hub and Midwest Regional Rail Initiative (MWRRI) together serve as a counterpoint to the experiences of the Keystone Corridor and Northeast Corridor. The Chicago Hub and MWRRI demonstrate the difficulty in moving HSR initiatives forward without the combined presence of leadership, means, and authority. They also demonstrate the difficulty in trying to implement an HSR network that crosses multiple states in the absence of significant political and financial support from the federal government.

History of HSR in the Midwest

Historically, the motivation to plan for HSR in the Midwest has primarily come from the potential to realize two opportunities. The first is to provide HSR between Chicago and other major Midwestern cities like St. Louis, Detroit, Milwaukee, and Minneapolis/St. Paul. Thus, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota--states where the majority of the routes would fall--are actively planning for HSR. The second opportunity, primarily explored by Ohio, is to link the major cities of Ohio--Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Columbus--with each other, and with Ohio as a hub, to link the Midwestern rail system with those in the Northeast. Hence, in the last three to four decades, several studies have been conducted and compacts formed to realize these opportunities.

However, development of HSR in the Midwest is also constrained in several ways. These constraints include automobile-dominated passenger travel; lower population densities (which means fewer people and larger spaces in between cities); and private ownership of rail ROW. Passenger rail, in particular HSR, does not have the same kind of support and ridership in the Midwest as in other regions of the United States, such as the Northeast. While Chicago is a large and densely developed metropolitan area, the other cities are much smaller with less concentration of population. Finally, most of the rail ROW in the Midwest is owned by a number of private freight railroad companies. These private railroads, currently in a growth phase, are wary of sharing their already congested right-of-way with HSR. The Wisconsin Rail Issues and Opportunities Report notes: "The Chicago Metropolitan Area is one of the busiest freight rail hubs in the United States. About one-third of the rail traffic in the United States originates, terminates, or passes through this area."See Wisconsin Department of Transportation, Wisconsin Rail Issues and Opportunities Report, p.11, http://www.dot.wisconsin.gov/projects/state/docs/rail-issues-chap1.pdf (accessed 3/25/06). The report further notes that 35,700 freight cars move through the Chicago metropolitan area each day. Furthermore, the average train speed is less than 12 mph (while the average truck speed is 15 mph), and there are 1,953 at-grade roadway/railway crossings.

The Early Attempts

One of the first attempts to examine the feasibility of HSR in the Midwest was a 1974 study conducted by the Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT). The study examined the feasibility of a new 150 mph double-track HSR service between Chicago and St. Louis. The study found the cost of new high-speed rail to be prohibitive.See Merrill Travis, President, Lower Cost Solutions, Inc., and Ex-Chief, Bureau of Railroads, Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT), personal communication, March 31, 2006. During the same period, the Ohio General Assembly created the Ohio Rail Transportation Authority (ORTA) to prepare a statewide, long-term comprehensive HSR plan. The plan, completed in 1980, proposed a 600-mile system to be funded by a 1 percent sales tax. The sales tax initiative was defeated in the state's 1982 general election ballot. Meanwhile, during the 1970s and 1980s, several studies were commissioned or conducted by Midwestern state departments of transportation (DOTs) or other public or private entities to assess the technical and financial feasibility of HSR in the Midwest. They include the 1978 study Ohio High Speed Intercity Rail Passenger Program: Phase I Feasibility Study ; the 1980 study Ohio High Speed Intercity Rail Passenger Program: Phase I Feasibility Study, commissioned by the ORTA; the 1981 study Michigan High Speed Intercity Rail Passenger Development Study: Market Analysis , and the 1983 study Back on Track -- Program for High Speed Transportation: The Detroit-Chicago Corridor , both commissioned by the Michigan Transportation Department; the 1984 Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's study High Speed Rail in the Midwest: An Economic Analysis; and the 1985 study Market Analysis of High Speed Rail Services in Ohio, commissioned by Ohio DOT.

All of these studies were conducted in parallel with and sometimes as a result of regional-level efforts to develop HSR in the Midwest. Such a regional effort was the "Interstate High Speed Intercity Rail Passenger Network Compact." Between 1979 and 1992 the states of Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Pennsylvania, New York, Tennessee, and West Virginia joined the compact. The State of Missouri's compact document noted that:

Because the beneficial service of and profitability of a high speed intercity rail passenger system would be enhanced by establishing such a system which would operate across state lines it is the policy of the states party to this compact to cooperate and share jointly the administrative and financial responsibilities of preparing a feasibility study concerning the operation of such a system connecting major cities in Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Missouri, and any other State which subsequently becomes a participant through enactment of the compact.See Missouri Revised Statutes, Transportation Services, § 680.175 (August 1997), "Interstate High Speed Intercity Rail Passenger Network Compact," http://ssl.csg.org/compactlaws/intercityhighspeedrail.html (accessed 4/3/06).

The compact further noted that:

The states of Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Missouri and all other states which subsequently enter into this compact, hereinafter referred to as "participating states," agree to, upon adoption of this compact by the respective states, jointly conduct and participate in a high speed intercity rail passenger feasibility study by providing such information and data as is available and may be requested by a participating state or any consulting firms representing a participating state or the compact. It is mutually understood by the participating states that such information shall not include matters not of public record or of a nature considered to be privileged and confidential unless the state providing such information agrees to waive the confidentiality.See Ibid.

Although the compact did not result in actual development of regional HSR, and was ultimately repealed by many of the participating states, it represented the first formal attempt by a group of Midwestern and Eastern states to study the feasibility of developing a regional HSR system.

Interest in HSR in the Midwest received a boost in 1990 when a group of high-level public and government officials toured Europe. The group gained first-hand HSR travel experience riding the X2000 in Sweden and the TGV in France. Among others, this group included senators and legislators from the State of Illinois; Illinois' lobbyists in Washington DC; the secretary of IDOT; and the chairman of Metra (commuter rail operating in the nine-county region of Northeastern Illinois).See Travis, personal communication, 3/31/05. The information gathered from this tour helped IDOT to develop a conceptual plan for incremental HSR for the Chicago-St. Louis corridor. The conceptual plan, prepared in 1991, was heavily influenced by the incremental speed and geographical coverage increases of the French TGV and sought to incrementally build up the existing Amtrak (National Railroad Passenger Corporation) service on the Chicago-St. Louis route. The incremental nature, it was opined, would also help to build public support for HSR. Meanwhile the states of Illinois, Minnesota, and Wisconsin were also interested in exploring the potential of HSR in the Chicago-Milwaukee-Minneapolis/St. Paul corridor. The states signed a Memorandum of Understanding in 1990. In 1991, TEMS/Benesch HSR Consultants presented their report, Tri-State HSR Study: Chicago-Milwaukee-Twin Cities Corridor , to the DOT's of the three states.

The purpose of the report was, "to investigate the economic and financial potential for constructing and operating a HSR system in one of two corridors...between Chicago and Minneapolis-St. Paul." The corridors examined were a southern corridor linking Chicago, Milwaukee, and the Twin Cities via Madison, and a northern corridor linking the same cities via Green Bay. The study concluded that the southern corridor appeared very promising in terms of ridership, revenues, and economic benefits and recommended using existing rights-of-way and 125 mph services.See C. de Cerreño, et. al., High-Speed Rail Projects in the United States, pp. 13-14.

Similar interest in exploring the potential for HSR in the Chicago-Detroit line led the DOTs of Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan to commission a feasibility study. In 1991, the consultants, URS Consultants/Parsons Brinckerhoff, Inc. presented their report, Detroit-Chicago Rail Passenger Corridor Development Blueprint . The report examined the relative costs and benefits of developing new right-of-way versus using the existing one. The study recommended the use of the existing right-of-way and upgrading of the railroad infrastructure to 125 mph standards. The study noted that population densities along the corridor from Chicago to Detroit were similar to Paris-Lyons, France.

Federal Action--Chicago Hub

In 1991 the federal government, under the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 (ISTEA) called for selection of not more than five corridors to be designated as HSR corridors. These included the California, Chicago Hub, Florida, Pacific Northwest, and Southeast corridors. In 1992, three lines--Chicago-Detroit, Chicago-St. Louis, and Chicago-Milwaukee--were designated part of the Chicago Hub. In 1998, the Chicago-Milwaukee line was extended to Minneapolis/St. Paul. The Chicago-Indianapolis-Cincinnati line and the Chicago-Toledo-Cleveland line were added to the Chicago Hub in 1999 and 2000, respectively. At present the Chicago Hub consists of eight lines covering 2,313 miles of track (See Lines Comprising the Chicago Hub).See Ibid., p. 14.

 
Lines Comprising the Chicago Hub
Lines
Mileage
Top Speed (goal)
Travel Time (goal)
Date Designated
Chicago-Milwaukee,
extension to Minneapolis/St. Paul

445

110 mph

5:52 hr

10/15/1992 12/11/1998

Chicago-Detroit

279

110 mph

3:49 hr

10/15/1992

Chicago-St. Louis

282

110 mph

3:50 hr

10/15/1992

St. Louis-Kansas City

283

90 mph

4:14 hr

1/19/2001

Chicago-Indianapolis-Cincinnati

319

110 mph

4:03 hr

1/28/1999

Chicago-Toledo-Cleveland

341

110 mph

4:23 hr

10/11/2000

Cleveland-Columbus-Cincinnati
(3-C Corridor)

254

110 mph

3:28 hr

10/11/2000

Indianapolis-Louisville

111

79 mph

4:00 hr

10/11/2000

Source: Allison L. C. de Cerreño, et al., High-Speed Rail Projects in the United States: Identifying the Elements for Success , MTI Report 05-01 (San José, CA: Mineta Transportation Institute, October 2005), p. 15.

While the earlier regionwide effort--through the Interstate High Speed Intercity Rail Passenger Network Compact--was unsuccessful, renewed regional efforts were made in the form of the Midwest Interstate Passenger Rail Commission (MIPRC) and the Midwest Regional Rail Initiative (MWRRI).

Renewed Regional Efforts--MIPRC and MWRRI

Under the auspices of the Midwestern Legislative Conference (MLC), the pro-HSR legislators of several Midwestern states formed a task force in December 1996. A regional association of state legislatures representing 11 Midwestern states (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin), the MLC fosters regional intergovernmental cooperation in the Midwest. It does this through the several mechanisms, including joint consideration of common problems, exchanging of information and ideas, sharing of knowledge and experience, and the pursuit of some collaborative efforts to improve state government.See Council of State Governments, "Midwestern Legislative Conference," http://www.csgmidwest.org/About/MidwesternLegislativeConference.htm (accessed 4/1/06).

Over the next four years, the task force decided to create the Midwest Interstate Passenger Rail Commission (MIPRC) through the Midwest Interstate Passenger Rail Compact drafted by the task force. The states of Indiana, Minnesota, and Missouri joined the compact in 2000. Later Nebraska, North Dakota, and Ohio joined the compact. The compact aimed to "promote, develop, and implement plans and improvements for passenger rail services in the Midwest."See HB 1363, http://www.house.mo.gov/bills00/bills00/HB1363.htm (accessed 4/3/06). Until now the MIPRC's primary function has been one of advocacy for HSR in the Midwest.

While the legislators were garnering political support for HSR, the state DOT officials joined efforts to prepare a regional plan for HSR. This effort gave rise to a loose consortium of state DOT officials called the Midwest Regional Rail Initiative (MWRRI), of which the MIPRC is supportive. The MWRRI "began in 1996 under the auspices of the Mississippi Valley Conference--a regional division of the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO)."See Indiana High Speed Rail Association, "A History of the Midwest Regional Rail Initiative," http://www.indianahighspeedrail.org/history.htm (accessed 12/1/05). The representatives of the state DOTs of Indiana, Illinois, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, and Wisconsin constitute the steering committee of the MWRRI. The rationale for the consortium was that together they would have more political clout and resources to plan