Research Project Description

Revisiting Factors Influencing Voting Results of Local Transportation Funding Initiatives with a Substantial Rail Transit Component

Project Number: 2911

Project Objective

This project will examine data from recent transportation funding initiatives to determine whether and how factors that are associated with elections outcomes have changed since a similar project was completed in 2001.

Principal Investigators:

Peter Haas, Ph.D., Director of Education, Mineta Transportation Institute

Project Abstract:

In 2001, MTI published Factors Influencing Voting Results of Local Transportation Funding Initiatives with a Substantial Rail Transit Component, a study based on case studies of eleven elections. The study has sparked considerable interest since its publication and was the basis for a journal article in 2004. However, many elections have transpired since the original research was conducted more than eight years ago. This project will (a) seek to replicate the results of the original study, (b) attempt to identify new or evolving factors that are associated with election results. Whereas the 2001 study used on-site visits as the basis for a series of case studies, this project will use telephone interviews and (primarily) online documents to achieve similar results. The goal will be to create an updated, definitive list of factors that are associated with transit tax initiative success and failure.

Task Description:

Task 1: Literature Review

A comprehensive review of relevant research published since the 2002 report will be conducted in order to ensure that recent developments in this area are addressed in this project. This review will also help identify appropriate sites for the project.

Task 2: Selection of Election Sites and Case Study Design

Based in part on data assembled from the literature review, approximately ten transportation tax initiative elections (both successful and unsuccessful) will be selected as case studies. As in 2002, each site will feature an election that included a substantial rail transit component and the list of sites will include both successful and unsuccessful initiatives.

The 2001 case studies were based upon on-site visits of each locality. This study will instead use a combination of telephone interviews and reviews of available documents. This task will entail identifying which types of officials and individuals that should be interviewed and creating appropriate interview protocols as well as devising a checklist of documentation for each case study.

Task 3: Collect and Analyze Case Study Data

This will entail conducting and analyzing telephone interviews, identifying appropriate documents and other data that will comprise the case studies. The 2001 study culminated in a practical checklist of factors and their association with election outcomes. Each factor was hypothesized to be consistent with either election success or failure, based on reasoned analysis. (For example, a campaign budget of over one million dollars was hypothesized to be consistent with an election victory for a transit initiative.) Then, for each factor and case study election, a determination was made as to whether the factor existed and was consistent with the election outcome. This study will seek to replicate that list, as well as potentially include other factors identified through the course of the study. Of course, detailed discussion of each factor and case study will be provided to help provide context for the results and to strengthen the analysis.

Technology Transfer:

The results of this study will be published online by MTI and also disseminated at a TRB conference in May, 2010. Assuming a successful outcome, the project will also form the basis for a journal publication. The P.I has been frequently been asked to present this research at other conferences, workshops, and the like; presumably updating this research will create additional demand for such presentations.

Potential Benefits of Project:

The project will update research that has proven to be very useful to transportation agencies for the past eight years. For example, the 2001 study is recently one of the most popular downloads from the MTI website. Given the sheer volume of more recent elections, however, updating this research is essential.

Project Funding: $15,000.00