Research Project Description

The Intersection of Urban Form and Mileage Fees: Findings from the Oregon Road User Fee Pilot Program

Project Number: 2909

Project Objective

This project will analyze data from the 2006-2007 Oregon Road User Fee Pilot program to assess if and how urban form variables correlate with travel behavior changes that participants made in response to the mileage-based fee program.

Principal Investigator:

Zhan Guo, Ph.D., Assistant Professor of Urban Planning and Transportation Policy Wagner Graduate School of Public Service, New York University

Team Members:

Asha Weinstein Agrawal, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Department of Urban & Regional Planning, San Jose State University, Director, MTI National Transportation Finance Center

Jennifer Dill, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Nohad A. Toulan School of Urban Studies and Planning (USP), Portland State University

Project Abstract:

In 2006 and 2007 the State of Oregon conducted a groundbreaking mileage-based fee pilot program. The program responded to state concern a concern shared by transportation officials nationally that fuel taxes will stop serving as a good transportation revenue source because a large proportion of the vehicle fleet will eventually run on little or no petroleum-based fuel, such as hybrid electric vehicles. To prepare Oregon for this future threat to its transportation revenues, the state legislature authorized a pilot program to test a mileage-based fee (MBF) that could potentially replace the state fuel tax. The pilot tested both a flat-rate fee that was the same for any mile driven, and also a variable fee structure that charged drivers a higher fee for miles driven during the rush hour. (ODOT 2007)

Since the pilot ended, researchers have examined many facets of the programs success, including the performance of the technology and ways that drivers changed their travel behavior once they were paying the flat-rate and variable mileage fees rather than the gas tax. One crucial aspect of the behavioral response that has not yet been studied, however, is whether peoples behavioral responses to the MBF are correlated with any elements of the urban form around their homes. This proposed research project will address that question.

Investigating whether urban form influences peoples behavioral responses to the MBF has various important research and policy implications. Most importantly, urban form patterns might prove the key to better explaining the observed behavioral responses to the MBF program. Empirical studies confirmed a great variation of behavioral responses in the pilot program in Oregon (Rufolo and Kimpel 2008; Rufolo and Kimpel 2009) and another pilot MBF program that was held in Minnesota (Abou-Zeid, et al. 2007), but the studies have failed to explain most of the variation. For example, only 6% of the VMT changes in the Oregon study were explained by household characteristics, access to transit, and personal attitudes. We hypothesize that urban form patterns, which have been overlooked by prior studies, could significantly affect a households response to a MBF program and should be taken into account in MBF program design and evaluation.

To test our hypothesis, this project will explore the following research questions:

1. Do urban form variables correlate with any of the travel behavior changes that participants made in response to the Oregon MBF pilot program  Are such correlations significant even after controlling for household characteristics (e.g. car ownership, household size, median income), personal attributes (e.g. gender, education, and attitudes), and public transit supply (e.g. access, quality, and frequency)?

2. Which urban form factors are most significant in explaining travel behavior variations?

3. Do the effects of the urban form variables differ under the two different fee structures tested, the flat-rate fee and variable fee with a higher rate during the peak periods?

Answering these questions will help researchers and policymakers predict important outcomes that could be expected from future MBF programs, including the VMT reduction and revenue that would be generate from communities with different urban forms.

Looking at how the MBF program impacts travel behavior and fee payments depending on urban form will also inform the equity discussions that arise whenever MBF programs are proposed. A common concern raised about MBF programs is that switching from fuel taxes to a MBF program will penalize residents in low-density communities, who have fewer transit options and nearby destinations than residents of more urban communities. Looking at the Oregon data will allow us to add real-world evidence to a debate that has so far largely been conducted without any particular empirical evidence.

Given the increasing national interest in the MBF program, its potential role as a mechanism to implement congestion pricing, and its potential to affect urban form patterns over the long-run, the proposed research fits well with the key MTI, California, and national research priorities related to transportation financing, congestion reduction, and integrated land use-transportation planning.

Task Description:

Task 1: Literature review & theory development

We will conduct a literature review to collect empirical evidence on people´s travel behavioral changes due to the few MBF programs implemented worldwide. In addition, we will review different urban form measures used to understand household travel decisions.

Task 2: Measuring land use patterns

Some urban form measures can be obtained directly from the RLIS database, but most must be calculated from the RLIS data using either a relational database or GIS.

Task 3:Model development & interpretation

The eight analyses described in the methodology section above will be conducted using three statistical analysis techniques: regression, logistic regression, and multinomial logit models.

Task 4:Report Writing

Write a final report to submit to MTI for peer review.

Technology Transfer:

Publications:

We expect to write at least one paper for journal publication. The tentative title is. The Intersection of Urban Form and Mileage Fees: Findings from the Oregon Road User Fee Pilot Program. The targeted journal is Transport Policy or the Journal of the American Planning Association.

Conferences and Presentations

We expect to submit the paper´s to several major transportation and planning conferences: the Transportation Finance conference in New Orleans in spring 2010 ( Transportation Finance: Forging a Sustainable Future Now), the annual meeting of Association of Collegiate School of Planning (ACSP) in fall 2010, the TRB meeting in January 2011, etc.

Potential Benefits of Project:

The results of the proposed research project will be of immediate use to policymakers currently designing mileage-based fee programs. Knowing how urban form will influence travel behavior changes will allow planners to more accurately predict the effectiveness of the fees in raising transportation revenues and, where the fee rates vary by congestion level, in reducing congestion.

The study results will also inform the equity discussions that arise whenever MBF programs are proposed. For example, some people are concerned that switching from fuel taxes to a MBF program will penalize residents in low-density communities, who have fewer transit options and nearby destinations than residents of more urban communities.

Project Funding: $54,117.00