Research Project Description
Project Number: 2902
Project Objective:
The proposed study will evaluate potential economic consequences, by simulating scenarios with the Sacramento land use and transportation models (PECAS and SACMET), of two important aspects of California´s Senate Bill 375: 1) the absence of a requirement that local land use plans conform to regional land use plans that demonstrate achievement of green house gas (GHG) targets required by Assembly Bill 32 and 2) the concentration of regional affordable housing in urban areas with high quality transit access.
Principal Investigators:
Caroline Rodier, Ph.D., Senior Researcher, Transportation Sustainability Research Center (TSRC), University of California, Berkeley
Team Members:
Doug Hunt, Ph.D., Professor, University of Calgary, Canada
John Abraham, Ph.D., Fellow, Institute for Advanced Policy Research, University of Calgary, Canada
Richard W. Lee, Ph.D., Lecturer, San Jose State University
Project Abstract:
The proposed study will enable the simulation of scenarios with the Sacramento land use and transportation models (PECAS and SACMET) to explore answers the following questions:
• What is the relative change in benefits among jurisdictions within a region that implement aggressive, moderate, and weak land use and transportation measures to reduce GHG emissions?
• If one or more jurisdiction(s) do not conform to the regional plan, what are the economic effects on the jurisdictions that do and do not conform?
• Where does the location of affordable housing within a region most benefit low income households (i.e., even distribution of affordable housing throughout the region versus concentration in urban areas with high quality transit)?
• What might be the effect of the failure of one or more regions to conform to the regional plan and the concentration of affordable housing in urban areas with high quality transit on the total regional economy?
Study results will illustrate potential economic outcomes to be highlighted or redressed to help promote cooperative local and regional land use planning. For example, scenario results that indicate that those jurisdictions that implement aggressive land use and transportation measures experience greater benefits relative to those jurisdictions that do not, may encourage more local cooperation with a regional plan. Alternatively, scenario results that indicate that jurisdictions that do not conform to the regional plan benefit at the expense of those that do, may suggest implementation policies to redress such inequities. An analysis of the economic effects of affordable housing location may underscore the interaction among the location of affordability housing, the welfare of low income households, and the overall regional economy. A careful analysis of such possible outcomes will help policy makers develop implementation strategies that may enable the revolutionary changes in California´s land use planning process needed to achieve California´s GHG reduction goals.
Task Description:
The motivating questions of the proposed study will be evaluated by applying the PECAS and SACMET models to simulate future business as usual (BAU) and smart growth scenarios in the Sacramento region. Mapping programs (e.g., GIS) will be used to geographically illustrate scenario results. The change in economic effects (consumer surplus including travel costs, rents, wages, and sales) for the total region and by local jurisdiction will be compared to the BAU scenario. More specifically, the model produces the following outputs for each scenario: total utility, travel costs, rents, and wages by household and commodity type by zone. Differences between scenarios will be calculated to understand total change for the region, jurisdictions, and zones as well as change by household and commodity type for the region, jurisdictions, and zones. GIS mapping programs will be used illustrate key results.
Other scenarios will be simulated in which a number of key jurisdictions in the smart growth scenario pursue BAU land use rather than smart growth land use. The results of such local decisions on the total regional economy and each jurisdiction within the region will be examined.
Finally, scenarios will also be simulated in which the share of affordable housing in urban areas with relatively high quality access to transit and jobs is increased relative to other locations in the regions. The scenario results will be examined to understand the effect of such a shift on the total economy and households by income class by region and jurisdiction.
The final report will contemplate the scenario results in the context of broader social issues and how such results might address drivers of community opposition.
Technology Transfer:
At least one paper will be prepared and submitted to a refereed conference, such as the TRB Annual Meeting. Similarly, a minimum of one paper will be submitted to appropriate transportation journals, such as the Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board. Results of the project will also be disseminated through the MTI website where those interested will be able to access the final report.
Potential Benefits of Project:
This study applies a state-of-the-art land use and transportation models to evaluate questions related to the distributional economic consequences of conforming or not conforming to regional land use and transportation plans to achieve GHG targets. Empirical studies and studies using lesser land use and/or transportation models have been conducted to examine economic effects of affordable housing studies. In general, however, the proposed study is unique and timely in its specific focus on the potential consequences of key provisions of SB 375 (which like AB 32 is a model for the entire nation). The outcome of this study could influence the development of policy mechanisms to encourage local and regional cooperation and maximize both the regional and distributional benefits of affordable housing.
Project Funding: $59,413.00
