Research Project Description

UNDERSTANDING HOUSEHOLD PREFERENCES FOR ALTERNATIVE FUEL VEHICLE TECHNOLOGIES

Project Number: 2809

Research Project:Soaring fuel prices as well as growing concerns about air pollution and global warming have steadily increased interest in alternative fuel vehicles. For households, these vehicles are becoming more attractive, partly because of various measures implemented to promote their use. For a few years now, Californians have been expressing interest in hybrid electric vehicles, partly because of the possibility to drive them in HOV lanes (Sangkapichai and Saphores, 2008). Many alternative fuel vehicles also benefit from federal tax breaks. The recent increase in gasoline prices seems to have changed attitudes as 74% of respondents to a recent poll conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) stated they would seriously consider getting a more fuel-efficient car for their next vehicle purchase (Baldassare et al., 2008, 25). A clear majority (73%) of Californians also favor mandating an increase in vehicle fuel efficiency, even if it results in higher costs (Baldassare, 2008), but this survey does not tell us how much higher. Significantly increasing fuel efficiency likely means relying on new technologies but it is not clear what trade offs people are willing to make regarding performance, reliability, cost, environmental characteristics, and ease of use.

This project will start filling this gap using an innovative approach that relies on applying contingent ranking, a stated preference technique, to a randomly selected sample of a large internet panel representative of the United States (U.S.) population. Contingent ranking simply asks respondents to rank various scenarios based on their preferences; different respondents are exposed to random combinations of selected characteristics, which allows us to infer peoples preferences with a large enough sample (1,000 respondents or more) and well designed scenarios. We can then quantify trade-offs people are willing to make after making some assumption about the structure of their preferences based on microeconomic theory

Co-Principal Investigators:

Hilary Nixon, Ph.D., Assistant Professor, San Jose State University

Jean-Daniel Saphores, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Civil & Environmental Engineering Dept., University of California, Irvine

Institution:
Mineta Transportation Institute

Telephone Number:
(408) 924-7560
Email Address: mti@mti.sjsu.edu

Project Objective:

To estimate preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for various types of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs), and to identify the characteristics (demographic, socio economic, and environmental attitudes) that influence WTP, in order to provide concrete policy recommendations for promoting the adoption of AFVs.

Project Abstract:

California has been playing a special role in promoting alternative fuel vehicles partly because it was the only state initially authorized to regulate vehicle emissions under §209(b) of the Clean Air Act; Section 177(a) of the CAA then allowed other states to adopt California motor vehicle emission standards. Californias Low Emission Vehicle (LEV) Program has a zero emission (ZEV) vehicle component that promotes advanced technology vehicles, including both high efficiency hybrids and low-carbon fuel SULEVs but it has been opposed by automobile manufacturers. Although various manufacturers started producing a limited number of electric vehicles in the 1990s, they were discontinued a decade later, which dealt a blow to Californias technology forcing efforts. Several reasons have been advanced to explain this failure but it underscores the crucial need for policy makers to have a good understanding of the trade offs people are willing to make for new automotive technology.

Understanding these trade-offs is essential for regulators and public agencies concerned about air quality and the environment. Indeed, promoting cleaner vehicles is of interest at multiple levels of government as they have the potential to improve local air quality, reduce dependence on foreign oil, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and support economic development (Deakin, 2001). Despite higher gas prices, however, alternative fuel vehicles are still more costly to consumers than gasoline vehicles, partly because of U.S. political opposition to taxing gasoline to account for both environmental damages and for the cost of fully financing infrastructure (Parry and Small, 2005). Uncertainty about new technologies is also likely to slow down private sector innovation, so government intervention (in the form of mandates and/or tax breaks) is called for.

Currently, however, a robust understanding of these trade-offs appears to be lacking. Preliminary investigations revealed, for example, that although the Air Resources Board has results from small (less than 100 people in total; see Ross-Campbell Inc. 2006) focus groups, it does not have reliable survey-based data on preferences for characteristics of alternative fuel vehicles. We are also not aware of any data at the national level.

More generally, as three-quarters of Americans commute to work by car alone (U.S. Department of Transportation, 2007), it is essential to consider a multi-faceted approach to transportation planning strive to reduce the negative externalities associated with single-occupancy automobile travel, in addition, of course, to expanding public transportation.

Milestones Dates:

Task 1: Review of the literature and of Review of AFV technology                                            

Task 2: Survey Design & Administration

Literature                                                                                                          

Task 3: Analysis of Survey Result                                                                                         

Task 4: Report and Papers Writing                                                                           

Final completion date:                                                                                                                    

Total Budget: $54,598 (includes $9,450 for MTIs costs) 

Student Involvement:Allen Mulch, Graduate Student, San Jose State University

Technology Transfer Activities:

Upon publication, a pdf version will be available on the Mineta Transportation Institute site. The project experience and data will be available for community meetings. Authors are encouraged to submit articles based on the research to relevant journals and to present the information to end-users at conferences.

Potential Benefits of the Project:

The results of this research will be useful primarily to policymakers at all levels of government but also to automobile manufacturers. A better understanding of the trade-offs people are willing to make and of the individual characteristics that influence these trade-offs is necessary to design policies that will best promote the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles; it will indicate what technologies are most likely to be successful in the market place, which is essential for designing efficient incentives. Our research will also be useful to automobile manufacturers by indicating what features are most important to consumer at what cost.

TRB Keywords:

Data and Information Technology; Design; Energy; Environment; Planning; Policy and Legal Issues

Primary Subject:

Alternative Fuel Vehicle Technologies

Goals:

This project will provide concrete policy recommendations for promoting the adoption of Alternative Fuel Vehicles.

Enabling Research:

Literature and alternative fuel vehicles technology; design and implementation of survey; analysis of survey results.

Modal Orientation:

Highways; Public Transportation