Research Project Description

COSTS AND EQUITY OF REDUCING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS THROUGH LAND USE AND TRANSPORTATION MEASURES:  A COMPREHENSIVE REVIEW OF THE ADVANCED MODELING LITERATURE FOR PRACTICAL APPLICATION IN CALIFORNIA

Project Number: 2805

Research Project:

There exists a large body of evidence suggesting that land use, auto pricing, and transit strategies are effective measures to reduce vehicle miles transportation to achieve necessary green house gas (GHG) emissions reductions. As part of a separate study funded by the California Air Resources Board, the principal investigator has conducted a comprehensive review of approximately 200 advanced modeling scenarios in more than 50 studies, conducted in California, the United States (U.S.), and internationally, on the effectiveness of these strategies to reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and green house gas (GHG) emissions. The proposed study would capitalize and expand this review to include the cost-effectiveness, economic efficiency, and equity effects of GHG, VMT, and congestion reduction by policy and geographic area type for near- and long-term time horizons.

Principal Investigators:

Caroline J. Rodier, Ph.D., Senior Researcher, Transportation Sustainability Research Center, University of California, Berkeley

Team Member: Richard W. Lee, Ph.D., Lecturer, San Jose State University and Consultant, Fehr & Peers

Institution:
Mineta Transportation Institute

Telephone Number:
(408) 924-7560
Email Address: mti@mti.sjsu.edu

Project Objective:

The proposed study will marshal the best available scientific evidence (approximately 100 advanced modeling studies of land use, auto pricing, and transit strategies conducted in California, the U.S., and internationally) to answer the questions of what types of policies, under what kinds of geographic circumstances and for both near-and long-term time horizons, may produce significant VMT and GHG reductions cost-effectively, without negative equity or broader economic effects.

Project Abstract:

Californias passing of the first global warming legislation in the U.S., The Global Warming Solutions Act (AB 32), requires Californias green house gas (GHG) emissions be reduced to 1990 levels by 2020, and the Governors Executive Order (S-3-05) targets an additional 80% reduction in GHG emissions below 1990 levels by 2050. Transportation accounts for 36% of total GHG emissions in California and 27% in the U.S. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) estimates that significant GHG reductions from passenger vehicles can be achieved through improvements in vehicle technology and the low carbon fuel standard; however, these reductions will not be enough to achieve 1990 levels if current trends in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) continue. As a result, land use, auto pricing, and transit policies strategies to reduce growth in VMT are therefore an important part of achieving Californias greenhouse gas emission reduction goals.

This review will marshal the best available scientific modeling evidence to answer the questions of what types of policies, under what kinds of geographic circumstances, may produce significant VMT and GHG reductions cost-effectively, without negative equity or broader economic effects.

This synthesis will make an original contribution to the understanding of the weight of the evidence on the GHG/VMT reduction potential, cost-effectiveness, economic efficiency, and equity effects of land use, auto pricing and transit policies.

Milestones Dates:

Task 1: Update Literature Review

Task 2: Data Collection

Task 3: Cost-effectiveness Analysis

Task 4: Economic Efficiency and Equity Analysis

Task 5: Draft Final Report

Final completion Date:

Total Budget: $53,019 (Includes $9,450 for MTIs costs) 

Student Involvement:

TBD

Technology Transfer Activities:

Upon publication, a pdf version will be available on the Mineta Transportation Institute site. The project experience and data will be available for community meetings. Authors are encouraged to submit articles based on the research to relevant journals and to present the information to end-users at conferences.

Potential Benefits of the Project:

The results will provide much needed/timely information to federal, state, and regional transportation and air quality agencies on the environmental, economic, and equity effects of a range of transportation policies that will likely have to be implemented to achieve the GHG goals of AB 32 and the Governors Executive Order.

TRB Keywords:

Data and Information Technology; Economic and Social Issues (land use modeling); Energy and Environment; Finance and Economics; Greenhouse Gases; Planning; Policy and Legal Issues

Primary Subject:

Climate Change; Achieving Californias Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Goals.

Goals:

Marshal the best available scientific modeling evidence to answer the questions of what types of policies, under what kinds of geographic circumstances, and for both near- and long-term horizons, may produce significant VMT and GHG reductions cost-effectively, without negative equity or broader economic effects.

Enabling Research:

Expand existing review; financial analysis; modeling

Modal Orientation:

Highway, Transit