Research Project Description
Mineta Transportation Institute
Linking Highway Improvements to Changes in Land Use with Quasi-Experimental Research Design: A Better Forecasting Tool for Transportation Decision-making
Project Number: 2703
Research Project: Previous studies have examined the induced population and economic impacts from new highway infrastructure in metropolitan regions. In this study, researchers propose to evaluate a mix of urban and smaller town highway projects to examine the possibility of differential effects. Specifically, they will examine and model changes in population and employment growth before and after three major state highway system developments in the 1990s: 1) the West Valley Freeway (SR 85) in the Santa Clara Valley, 2) the Highway 87 extensions, also in the Santa Clara Valley, and 3) the Highway 99 Livingston Bypass in the San Joaquin Valley.
Principal Investigator:Hilary Nixon, Assistant Professor, San Jose State University
Team Members:Marlon Boarnet, Professor, University of California Irvine;Richard Funderburg, Assistant Professor, University of Iowa
Student Assistant:Allen Mulch, San Jose State University
Institution:
Mineta Transportation Institute
Telephone Number:
(408) 924-7560
Email Address: mti@mti.sjsu.edu
Project Objective:
Our research will pursue four objectives. First, we will develop and test a geographic information system that will accurately measure the proximity of populations and economic activities to access points for transportation improvements (on-ramps, for example). Second, we will develop and test a quasi-experimental matching method that selects, as controls, regions similar in every respect to those receiving (or in proximity to) transportation improvements, except that the controls lacked any similar sort of intervention. Third, we will develop and calibrate a forecasting model that incorporates the experimental and control groups in a way that enables predictions of
population and employment change under both build and no-build scenarios for future transportation projects. Fourth, we will package the three products described above as an
integrated, practical tool that will assist the development and execution of state and local
transportation policy.
Project Abstract:
When California voters approved Proposition 1B on November 7, 2006, the state initiated a long list of new projects for the improvement and extension of highways, among items financed by the Highway Safety, Traffic Reduction, Air Quality, and Port Security Bond Act of 2006. With the onset of several new highway projects throughout the state, understanding the critical link between highways and patterns of regional growth becomes ever more imperative. Particularly important will be the ability of projects to avoid or sustain challenges to Environmental Impact Statements based upon forecasts of regional growth. A legal precedent for such challenges was established in 1997 when a U.S. District Court judge ruled that the EIS for a proposed Illinois toll road was deficient because the growth projections were the same in the build and no-build scenarios (Sierra Club v. United States DOT, 1997). The proposed research builds upon regional growth forecasting models developed by team member Marlon Boarnet (1992, 1994, and
2005) and we incorporate elements of quasi-experimental research design that directly relate the enhancement of transportation infrastructure to changes in population and employment location while controlling for no-build historical counterfactuals.
The research planned for this project will focus on the integration of land use planning and transportation at the state and local level. The primary product of our proposed research is an analytical tool that would improve decision-making regarding transportation infrastructure development, a need identified as an important priority in this topic area.
Milestones Dates:
Task 1: Literature Review
The literature review will summarize empirical estimates of the relationship between highway infrastructure and urban growth, the economic, social, land use, and other environmental impacts of new and expanded highway infrastructure development. In addition, we will examine recent contributions and innovations in quasi-experimental research design.
Task 2: GIS Data Collection
We will collect three types of data that will populate our GIS. Public use vector GIS data
identifying route numbers and postmile will be collected from the California Department of Transportation. Publicly available census data will be collected from the U.S. Census Bureau. ES 202 employment data will be collected from the California Employment Development Department.
Task 3: GIS Development/Digitizing
We will develop and test a geographic information system that will accurately measure the proximity of populations and economic activities to access points for transportation improvements (on-ramps, for example).
Task 4: Develop and test quasi-experimental matching method
We will develop and test a quasi-experimental matching method that selects, as controls, regions similar in every respect to those receiving (or in proximity to) transportation improvements, except that the controls lacked any similar sort of intervention.
Task 5: Develop and calibrate forecasting models/Regression analysis
We will develop and calibrate a forecasting model that incorporates the experimental and control groups in a way that enables predictions of population and employment change under both build and no-build scenarios for future transportation projects.
Task 6: Report writing
Along with the analytical model, we will provide a detailed final report that discusses our findings, conclusions, and recommendations for dissemination and use of the forecasting tool.
Task 7: Outside Review and Comment
Solimar Research Group will review the models and contribute to the final report.
Task 8: Final report editing
Each of the team members will contribute to the writing and editing of the report throughout its development.
Anticipated date for completion of project
Total Budget:$53,703
Student Involvement:
Student Research Assistant, San Jose State University TBA
Technology Transfer Activities:
Upon publication, pdf and html versions will be available on the Mineta Transportation Institute web site. The project experience and data will be available for community meetings. Authors are encouraged to submit articles based on the research to relevant journals and to present the information to end-users at conferences.
Potential Benefits of the Project:
The primary product of this research will be a new analytical model to assist state and local transportation agencies with predicting long-term cumulative impacts on land use and the environment from likely changes in population and employment location induced by proposed transportation improvements. We anticipate that our research will also result in an innovative and easy-to-apply tool that policymakers can use to ensure improvements are designed to achieve the greatest benefit to economic development with
the least environmental harm.
TRB Keywords:
Economic forecasting; Economic growth; Growth management; Highway construction; Traffic forecasting
Primary Subject:
Land use, transportation planning
Goals:
Researchers expect to find that improvements in surface transportation infrastructure have large impacts on growth patterns. Project researchers believe the forecasting tool will be an important contribution that assists state and local decision-making in addition to grounding regional growth forecasts on more defensible premises. Along with the analytical model, the end product will be a detailed final report that discusses findings, conclusions, and recommendations for dissemination and use of the forecasting tool.
Enabling Research:
- Collection of data
- Statistical analysis
- Discussion
Modal Orientation:
Transportation planning
