Research Project Description

Mineta Transportation Institute

The Evolving Nature of Terrorist Acts Against Surface Transportation: Capturing Lessons Learned

Project Number: 2501

Principal Investigator: Brian Michael Jenkins, Mineta RA; Director, National Transportation Security Center (at MTI); Consultant

Institution:
Mineta Transportation Institute

Telephone Number:
(408) 924-7560

Email Address: mti@mti.sjsu.edu

Project Objective:

The threat of another major terrorist attack in the United States remains high with the greatest danger coming from local extremists inspired by events in the Middle East. Although the United States removed the Taliban government and destroyed Al-Qaeda’s training camps in Afghanistan, events in Europe and elsewhere have shown that the terrorist network leadership remains determined to carry out further attacks, and is capable of doing so.

Therefore, the U.S. must systematically conduct top-quality; ongoing research of terrorist strikes against transportation targets to distill lessons learned and determines the best practices for deterrence, response, and recovery. Those best practices must be taught to transportation and security professionals to provide secure surface transportation for the nation.

Worldwide, terrorists have increasingly targeted public surface transportation targets. Since most of their attacks are intended to kill, they have focused on public transit, where small quantities of explosives, and potentially unconventional weapons, can cause large-scale casualties, panic and societal and economic disruption. Recent bombings in Russia, Spain, and the United Kingdom have killed hundreds and caused millions of dollars in infrastructure damage and opportunity costs.

By studying recent incidents in Europe and Russia, the project will help leaders in America to learn valuable lessons – from preventing attacks to response and recovery to addressing their psychological impacts to business continuity. Timely distillations of the lessons learned and best practices developed in other countries once distributed to law enforcement, first responders and rail and subway-operating transit agencies could result in thousands of American lives saved.

Abstract:

MTI’s counter-terrorism team will conduct case studies of the following attacks:

Additionally, the team will complete a case study of the thwarted 1997 plot to carry out a suicide bombing in New York's subway system.

The investigation will include how the events were planned; the devices employed, target selection, etc. The focus will be on the international incidents, but the addition of the New York case will reveal just how close the U.S. came to being attacked and underscores the relevancy of the case studies. The report will include best practices and lessons learned that should be adopted in the United States to prevent and/or respond to and recover from similar attacks.

MTI’s 1920 to 2004 chronology of terrorist attacks on surface transportation targets will be brought up to date and made available electronically via MTI’s website.

The best practices and lessons learned from this and past research will be distilled in a report and then presented to rail transportation and emergency response leaders in a national symposium conducted by MTI. The symposium will be a separate project.

Research: The team, led by counter-terrorism expert Brian Michael Jenkins, will gather data regarding the bombings and compare the information to that gained through MTI’s existing chronology of rail and subway attacks. A comparison will also be made to MTI’s 15 previously completed case studies. Information regarding the financing of the bombing attacks and the financial impact of the attacks on rail and metro companies and the economy will also be collected. Through interviews with transportation and law enforcement officials and first responders, the team proposes to learn how the United Kingdom, France, Spain, and Russia’s approach to the following factors has evolved.

Deterrence: The team will study international intelligence gathering and analysis techniques and learn how the adversary picks targets and how their tactics, including the use of technology, have evolved over time. The team will investigate new technologies being adopted by the terrorists and evaluate their success. A survey of publicly available (print and electronic) material will determine what information is available to potential terrorists.

Preparedness: The team will examine emergency preparedness plans, especially focusing on the communication of threats to employees and the public. In addition to that top down communication, data will be gathered on the role that the public plays in providing information to system operators and how that information is used. An issue to be explored is whether, via means of surveillance by the transportation companies or law enforcement, the time for attack warnings can be extended, providing more time to move people to safety.

Response: The team will be looking for best practices for emergency communications and the coordination of rescue and recovery efforts. Secondary incendiary devices are a risk for emergency responders so the team will study the methods used in the United Kingdom, Spain, and Russia to determine the safety of rescue personnel. The team will consult with the respective agencies charged with responding to disasters, as well as local law enforcement and other first responders.

Recovery: Interagency cooperation will be studied. Vehicle and station design will be analyzed to see if any modifications could result in less property damage and reduced severity or incidence of personal injury.

Business Continuity:The team will assess the techniques used in the United Kingdom, Spain, and Russia to maintain ridership in the wake of the bombings. In addition to studying physical recovery operations, the team is especially interested in the ways other countries deal with the psychological impacts of terror on their society.

Description and Project dates:

Task 1: Interviews:

Formal interviews with transportation, emergency response, law enforcement and governmental policy officials

Task 2: Analysis of Data:

Review emergency preparedness/ response and business continuity plans

Task 3: Update chronology:

•   Standardize data gathering to enable ongoing updates

•   Conduct trend analysis on applicable variables

Task 4: Distill Lessons Learned and Best Practices:

Determine lessons and practices most relevant to U.S. transportation systems

Task 5: Draft Report:

Write out case studies, synthesize report findings

Following submission of the draft final report, the following actions will occur:
Copyedit and preparation of Peer Review Draft
Peer Review and Author’s Response
Final Editing and Pre-Publication
Printer’s Blue line Proof and Final Print
The estimated time for these to occur will be no less than two months.

Total Budget:
$103,125

Principal Investigator: Brian Michael Jenkins, Mineta RA; Director, National Transportation Security Center (at MTI); Consultant

Team Members:

Frances Edwards, Ph.D., Mineta RA, Assistant Professor of Political Science, and Director, MPA program, SJSU

Larry Gerston, Ph.D., Mineta RA, Professor, Political Science, SJSU

Students: TBD

Technology Transfer Activities:
Upon publication, pdf and html versions will be available on the Mineta Transportation Institute web site. The project experience and data will be available for community meetings. Authors are encouraged to submit articles based on the research to relevant journals and to present the information to end-users at conferences. MTI anticipates sponsoring a national symposium to distribute the findings of this report.

Potential Benefits of the Project:

By studying the incidents in Europe and Russia, America can continue to learn valuable lessons – from preventing attacks to response and recovery to addressing their psychological impacts to business continuity. Timely distillations of the lessons learned and best practices developed in other countries once distributed to law enforcement, first responders and rail and subway-operating transit agencies could result in thousands of American lives saved.

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Key Words:Crisis management, Derailing, Emergency Communications, Emergency response, Liaison with authorities, Restoration of services, Role of the public, Sabotage, Security, Security organization, Security technology