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Research Project Description |
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Welfare to Work: A Simulation of Land
Use and Transportation Policies
Project Number: 2403
Robert A. Johnston. MTI Research Associate; Professor, Dept. of
Environmental Science and Policy, UC Davis Institution: Project Objective: To conform to the federal law, the California Department of Social Services enacted the California Work Opportunity and Responsibility to Kids (CALWORKs) program on January 1, 1998. From 1998 to 2001, the caseloads were reduced by 1.4 million. A survey done in 1998 and 1999 in the Bay Area showed that 90% of one-parent households and 94% of two-parent households that left welfare reported earnings from subsequent employment (MacCurdy, T., Marrufo, G., and O’Brien-Strain, M., 2003. What happens to families when they leave welfare? Public Policy Institute of California. Available at: http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/R_903TMR.pdf ) At the state level, the results were not so optimistic. In 1998 and 1999, 41.7% of adults on welfare were employed. In contrast, only 12.2% and 15.3% of case closures were attributed to increased earnings, and only 3.1% and 3.5% of case closures were attributed to new employment (California Department of Social Services (CDSS), 1999. CalWORKs Characteristics Survey. Available at: http://www.dss.cahwnet.gov/q51804/publications/pdf/Updated%20PDF%20CalWORKS%2099.pdf). These
data suggest that there is great variation in the rate at which welfare
recipients transfer to self-sufficiency across counties within California. It
is possible that this wide variation in success is due to in part to
differences in the spatial distribution of low-income residences, low-skill
jobs, and connecting transportation networks in each region. As we show
below, there is evidence that in some urban regions welfare recipients are
located far from relevant employment and that in other regions they are not. .
Abstract: Sacramento
County has the fourth highest number of welfare cases of all counties. Table
1 gives the caseload in different years. Although the total caseload
decreased 34% since 1997, the rate of decrease slowed in recent years. There
seems to remain a somewhat smaller, but more difficult number of recipients,
even though the actual individual recipients change over time. Therefore, it
is important to understand this group of recipients and its relationships
with neighborhood characteristics, the location of relevant employment, land
use policies affecting apartment construction, and transportation policies
affecting transit service. If these relationships can be determined,
statistically, we can then recommend policies to reduce unemployment for
welfare recipients. Table 1 CalWORKs Caseload in Sacramento
County
PROPOSED WORKSCOPE The Sacramento region travel model will be used to evaluate several policies to improve job access for welfare recipients in Sacramento County. The team will examine policies for better transit, subsidized auto purchases, and more multifamily zoning in suburban areas, and determine through analysis whether these policies would provide employment opportunities for welfare recipients. 1. Location choice model Compared with job locations, the residential locations of welfare recipients are highly dynamic (Niemeier, D. and Sumpter, M., 2000. Transportation Needs of Sacramento County Welfare Recipients. University of California at Davis, Inst. of Transportation Studies. Rept. UCD-ITS-RR-2000-2). The traditional methods that map the locations of recipient residences and relevant jobs based on cross-sectional data are static. The spatial correlations of the residences and jobs at one time point may not be suitable for extrapolating the spatial correlations of future welfare recipients. The team will use two ways to describe the residential location choice. The first way is to predict the neighborhoods with affordable rents. We assume welfare recipients, no matter what races they are, have few options, due to the fact that they have lower incomes than the average poor. They must live where they can afford the rent. The neighborhoods with the lowest rents will most probably be preferred by welfare recipients. The team will use factor analysis and regression analysis for this analysis. The second way is to build a multinomial logit model. In this model, the dependent variable is the probability of a welfare assistance household choosing a neighborhood to live in and the explanatory variables will include socioeconomic characteristics of the neighborhood (census tract or block group) and neighborhood characteristics including access to jobs. Description and Project dates: Task One: Literature review: July 2005 – August 2005
Task Three: TaskFour: March 2006 Task Five: Complete land use and
transportation policy simulations with SACMET02 . April 2006 – June 2006 Task Six: Draft and submit final report to MTI. July 2006
Total Budget: $52,722 Principal
Investigator: Robert A. Johnston. MTI Research Associate; Professor, Dept. of Environmental
Science and Policy, UC Davis Team Members: Member: Dr. Michael Pogodzinski. MTI Research Associate; Professor, Dept. of
Economics, SJSU Students: Shengyi Gao, UC Davis, SJSU Student, TBD Technology
Transfer Activities: Potential Benefits of the Project: The priority of CALWORKs is to help welfare participant find jobs and retain jobs. Transportation is reported to be the biggest barrier for the welfare recipients to access job opportunities and other activities, given current residential and job distribution patterns. The geographic barriers between residences and jobs can be removed through either adding apartment zoning in neighborhoods with large numbers of entry-level jobs, or by building efficient transit, or by subsidizing auto ownership. The land use policy will lower the living costs and travel costs and expose welfare recipients to job opportunities. The transportation policy will increase welfare recipients’ job accessibility.. . Key Words: Advocacy groups; Employment; Transportation disadvantaged
persons; Transportation planning
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