Transportation Futures for Deep Greenhouse Gas Reductions
Synergistic Interactions of New Transportation Technologies and Services with Land Use, Transit, and Auto Pricing Policies (Year 2)
Project Number: 1207
The goal of this project is to illustrate and understand (1) how new transportation technologies (i.e., dynamic ridesharing and electric vehicles) may have synergistic interactions with land use, transit, and auto pricing policies; (2) what the magnitude of those interactions might be with respect to vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and/or greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions; and (3) how to take advantage of emerging data and modeling tools to conduct similar analyses for other emerging technologies.
Caroline Rodier, Associate Director, Urban Land Use and Transportation Center, Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis
Ralph McLaughlin, Assistant Professor, Urban and Regional Planning, San José State University
Laurel Torney, Graduate Research Assistant, San Jose State University
Very little research has explored how new transportation technologies and services (e.g., dynamic ridesharing and electric vehicles) may have synergistic interactions with land use, transit, and auto pricing policies and what the magnitude of those interactions might be with respect to VMT and/or GHG reductions. The proposed study would use the California ABM to examine the potential magnitude of markets for and VMT and/or GHG reductions from dynamic ridesharing and adoption of electric vehicles created by land use, transit, and auto pricing policies. The California Statewide Travel Demand Model (CSTDM) is the first ABM to be applied at a large state level geographic scale. The study builds on the deep GHG reduction scenarios simulated with the CSTDM in year one of Transportation Futures project (funded by the MTI and FTA), which includes land use, transit, and VMT fee measures. In year two of the project, we will mine the rich data produced by the simulated scenarios. For dynamic ridesharing, decision rules will be obtained from the behavioral literature and expert consultations and applied to these data to identify the number of potential participants as well as the number of trips and VMT that could be satisfied by the service in both the business-as-usual and alternative scenarios. For electric vehicles, the focus will be on how land use and transit scenarios could increase their market penetration. The California Air Resources Board has recently decided that they will accept GHG reductions from electric vehicles as part of regional sustainable community strategies under SB 375, which demonstrate how regional GHG targets for passenger travel will be met. Shorter driving ranges possible from land use and transit scenarios may increase the adoption of electric vehicles. Analytical uncertainties will be addressed through extensive sensitivity analyses.
- Literature Review and Consultation with Experts
- Develop a Selection Criteria and Sensitivity Analyses Plan
- Write the Code to Implement the Plan Developed in Task 2
- Test Code from Task 3 and Evaluate Results
- Draft Final Report
- Revise Final Report Based on Comments from Peer Reviews
The results of this research will be disseminated though journal articles and presentations at the Transportation Research Board’s Annual Meetings and other conferences. A Sunday workshop could also be developed on this subject at the Annual Meeting. As always, we are happy to make presentations to Caltrans and other state agencies on the results of this project as we have done frequently over the years.
Potential Benefits of Project
Technology professionals will gain insight into the relative importance of land use and transportation decisions on their ability to implement new technologies and services. They will also gain an understanding of how emerging modeling tools can be used to gauge markets for new services (for example, by analyzing a 2010 base year 2010 which is supported by a census and a new statewide travel survey). Transportation and land use professionals can also use the results to evaluate and advocate for methods to achieve deeper GHG reductions from land use and transportation scenarios.